投资之家-股票-港股-美股-三板-研报-行业-概念

加为桌面|设为首页|收藏本站|意见建议

行业研究

全部

Hong Kong/Macau Gaming:Negative Earnings Revision to Persist

研究机构:摩根士丹利亚洲 研究员:Praveen K Choudhary,Alex Poon,Thomas Allen 发布时间:2014-08-27

Macau has witnessed a sharp revenue slowdown inthe past two months. We expect consensus to revisedown earnings further, due to rising staff costs andnegative operating leverage. Valuations are still notcompelling for the industry, in our view.

Industry-specific changes: We cut our 2014 GGR growth forecasts from12% to 6%, implying 2H14 growth of -1% YoY. We are 4% and 5% belowconsensus for 2014 revenue and EBITDA estimates, respectively. We nowexpect VIP and mass growth for 2014 to be -3% (from +4%) and 24% (from+28%), and for 2015 to be 5% (unchanged) and 20% (from +24%),respectively. Our mass growth is higher for 2015/16 versus 2H14, driven by8%/14% YoY increase in mass tables and 9%/33% YoY increases in casinohotel rooms and expected infrastructure improvements.

Macau trip takeaway: 1) There are no structural issues in the market, yetinconvenience for agents and premium mass customers from restrictions ontransit visas, the liquidity crunch, limited supply growth and negativesentiment could mean muted growth in 2H14. 2) Labor cost is rising and couldsee 10-15% growth per annum, outpacing revenue growth in the foreseeablefuture. 3) The smoking ban starting October could hurt mass market businessin 4Q. But in the interim, new premium mass areas at Cotai Central and CODare not allowed to have smoking.

Change in earnings and price targets: For the six companies, we revisedour 2014-16 EPS estimates by 0% to -19% and and our PTs by 2% to -17%,after reducing industry growth rates and increasing operating costs for 2014-16e. Our revised EBITDA estimates for 2014/15 are 5%/8% below consensus(which is expecting 16%/17% YoY growth for 2014/15) for the sector,respectively.

Valuation: Based on our 2015 estimates, the stocks are trading at 17x P/E and13x EV/EBITDA and do not look attractive. Slower growth expectations couldmean potential de-rating as well.

声明:投资之家免费提供的研究报告及其他资料均来自互联网,仅作为用户获取信息之目的,并不构成投资建议,市场有风险,投资需谨慎。