投资之家-股票-港股-美股-三板-研报-行业-概念

加为桌面|设为首页|收藏本站|意见建议

行业研究

全部

Gas:Lower oil prices facilitate gas reform; PetroChina is our top pick

研究机构:高盛高华证券 研究员:Franklin Chow,Frank He,Marcus Chu,Shuai Liu 发布时间:2014-12-16

Different paths to gas price reform under lower oil prices

We think National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) remains committed to gas price reform by using market-based energy prices and higher consumption tax to improve energy conservation and resource allocation. Under this backdrop, if lower oil price level persists, there would be risk to our assumed Rmb0.2/m3 gas price hike (Aug. 2015). We expect NDRC to close the price gap (about Rmb0.5/m3) between inventory consumption volume (cheaper) and incremental volume (on 2012 basis).

We think China will take the opportunity of lower commodities prices to implement long-planned reforms, e.g. 1) refined product prices fell less than expected lately as consumption taxes were raised; 2) retail power prices remain unchanged even though coal (key fuel) prices have fallen by about 40% since the 2011-peak. Fuel cost savings have been diverted to subsidize alternative energy and environmental protection for the sector.

We see three possible scenarios: 1) if oil price were to rebound back to our 2015E forecast of US$84/bl, we expect incremental volume price to fall to the level of flat inventory volume price; 2) if oil price were to stay around the current US$62/bl, both inventory and incremental volume prices may fall unless current pricing formula changes; and 3) price parity is delayed beyond 2015 as the government may be reluctant to cut both gas prices.

Stocks: PetroChina (Buy) is our top pick within our gas coverage For upstream, we keep our Buy rating on PetroChina as we expect it to be the key beneficiary of structural growth and market reform in the gas supply sector. In scenario 1 above (incremental volume price to fall to inventory volume price), our 2015/2016 EPS forecasts for PetroChina may be 4%/10% lower than our base-case forecasts, without considering changes to demand and potentially lower import losses.

For downstream, we see demand shortfall as natural gas is now less costcompetitive than fuel oil but still competitive against LPG and diesel; the former prices are regulated but the latter are more market-based. We think some industrial users such as glass manufacturers have already switched to cheaper fuel oil. We have also seen yoy fall in LNG vehicle sales lately; we now expect investment payback for LNG trucks to extend to 16 months from 11 months in 1H14. For Kunlun Energy (Neutral) and ENN (Neutral), we are also concerned over their respective domestic and North American LNG development strategies.

声明:投资之家免费提供的研究报告及其他资料均来自互联网,仅作为用户获取信息之目的,并不构成投资建议,市场有风险,投资需谨慎。