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Jardine Matheson Holdings Ltd:MSCI Methodology review opens up technical upside

研究机构:摩根大通(亚太) 研究员:摩根大通证券(亚太)研究所 发布时间:2015-01-21

MSCI has announced that starting from its November Semi annual review, companies traded outside the country ofclassification (foreign listed companies) will be eligible for addition into country indices. This has potential positiveimplications for JM, a Bermuda registered, Hong Kong company listed in Singapore. JM is not in either of the Singaporeor Hong Kong MSCI country indices at this time. This news could result in the stock’s technical rerating higher. JM’sdiscount to NAV, which has narrowed recently, could sustain at current levels.

What is changing? JPM Quants/derivatives strategy analyst Sue Lee notes that starting November MSCI willconsider including companies listed outside their country of classification into country indices.

What does it mean? JM SP, Singapore listed is not included in either the Singapore or Hong Kong MSCI countryindex. The actual decision on inclusion will depend on factors including liquidity etc. However, the potential impactcould be significant. According to our derivatives team (link https://jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-1600004-0)the potential impact on JM if included (in terms of demand if included) could be to the extent of 13m shares, or nearly70 days of average trading volume.

Recommendation: While it is not certain that JM will be included in a country index, the potential impact mayresult in the stock trading higher in the intervening period. The stock has been rerated higher recently to the upper endof its post GFC range. We think this could sustain in the run up to November.

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