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Chemcial Reactions Asia :What is the impact of lower oil prices?

研究机构:摩根大通(亚太) 研究员:摩根大通(亚太)研究所 发布时间:2015-01-21

JPM Commodities Research has cut its 2015/16 Brent oil price forecast (details here) to $49/bbl and $56.8/bbl respectively,compared to the previous forecast of $82 and $87.8. In short, we feel that OPEC is unlikely to reach a deal during 2015-16.

Weaker fundamentals and the need for non-OPEC producers to shoulder the necessary burden of adjustment are the other key driversof a lower oil price forecast. Near term we expect supply pressures to increase in the Atlantic Basin crude market as refinery runsdrop on the back of seasonal maintenance. We therefore expect prices to trough in Mar at an average of $38/bbl. The wideningof futures market contango to close to full carry demonstrates that prices have adjusted to the excess supply, by generating sufficientreturns to allow floating storage. If markets cannot accommodate the 1Q15 market surplus of 1.6 mbd, then prices could fall belowour Mar target. Thereafter, rising demand and the start of non-OPEC supply cuts should improve market conditions and lift pricesover the course of 2H15.

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