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India Mining,DII vs. FII - Vol 17:FIIs sell down across Metals and Cement, while locals pile up on Cement; FIIs like HNDL and locals like HNDL, JSW

研究机构:摩根大通(亚太) 研究员:Pinakin Parekh,Dinesh S. Harchandani,Neha Manpuria 发布时间:2015-01-22

FII holdings declined across most metal equities, except SAIL (which saw a selldown last qrtr) and fell to the lowest level in 3 qrtrs. Surprisingly, even in cement, FII holdings fell in most cement companies. In metals, domestic MF holdings increased only in JSW, SAIL (stale sale) and HNDL. Over the last 12 months, the biggest decline in MF holding has been in SSLT and the increase has been HNDL and JSW (doubling of holdings). Positioning wise, HNDL is relatively overowned with both foreigners and locals, while SSLT and TATA are relatively under-owned. Over the last 3 qrtrs, FIIs have very clearly preferred only HNDL, while domestic MFs have increased in HNDL and JSW.

HNDL - FII holdings decline modestly in Dec-qtr, still remain at high levels, domestic MF levels pick up: FII holdings for HNDL decreased 60bps q/q in Dec-14 qtr. DII levels reported an increase of 90bps (to 12.7%, down 230bps q/q in Sep-qtr), with growth driven by both MF (+30bps) and insurance (+50bps). Given the volatility in aluminum and that HNDL is relatively overowned both by locals and foreigners, we do see near term pressure.

TATA - FII levels decline: FII levels declined sharply 170bps q/q at 19.1%, and was at the lowest level in 3 qrtrs while DII holdings increased 110bps q/q.DII improvement was entirely driven by Insurance holdings (+100bps q/q), which had declined 110bps in Sep-qtr, while MF holdings remained stable q/q.

SSLT- FII and DII holding stable as promoter buying declines after significant purchases in previous 2 quarters: FII levels declined 20bps q/q to 21.2% and are at multi-year lows, while DII levels were stable q/q. SSLT promoter holding increased 40bps q/q to 62.9%. Over the last 3 qrtrs, promoter holdings increased by 4.6%, inching closer to cap of 5%.

NMDC, COAL, SAIL: SAIL reported growth across both DII (+440bps) and FII (+50bps) holdings, as the govt. reduced its stake by 5% during the qtr.Among other PSUs, NMDC reported a 60bps decline in FII holdings, offset by 60bps growth in DII holdings. COAL reported a marginal (+20bps) increase in both FII and DII holdings. Domestic MF holding in NMDC is at multi-year lows at 0.1%, while in FII levels remain elevated.

JSW: FII holdings declined 50bps q/q while DII increased 30bps q/q.Promoter holdings increased 30bps q/q. Domestic MF holdings in JSW have doubled over the last 3 qrtrs.

JSPL (NC): FII holdings declined 150bps q/q to 19.9% and are now at the lowest levels since Dec-08. DII holdings declined 90bps q/q to 3.7%, at the lowest levels since Dec-10.

Cement – FII declines for ACC, UTCEM and Ramco; increases for Ambuja: FII levels declined for ACC (-200bps), UTCEM (-40bps) and Ramco Cement (-80bps). ACEM reported a slight improvement in FII holdings (+50bps). FII holdings for Shree Cement improved 20bps, reporting growth for 8th consecutive qtr. Grasim was flat q/q. DII holdings for most companies increased, with ACC gaining most (+180bps), followed by Ramco (+90bps).UTCEM increased 20bps and Grasim reported increase of 30bps, while ACEM reported decline of 30bps q/q.

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