投资之家-股票-港股-美股-三板-研报-行业-概念

加为桌面|设为首页|收藏本站|意见建议

宏观经济

全部

China: January flash PMI turned up modestly to 49.8

研究机构:摩根大通(亚太) 研究员:Grace Ng,Lu Jiang,Haibin Zhu 发布时间:2015-01-29

The flash reading for January Markit China manufacturing PMI came in somewhat better than expected at 49.8 (J.P. Morgan: 49.2, consensus: 49.5), compared to the final reading of 49.6 in December. The modest, 0.2-pt rise in the flash January PMI followed two consecutive monthly declines. It is interesting to note that, while the headline flash PMI stayed below the 50 threshold for the second consecutive month in January, amongst the major components in the flash PMI reading, output, new orders and export orders all came in above the 50 threshold. On the pricing front, both input and output price components fell again in January.

In details, January output component turned up modestly by 0.2-pt to reach 50.1, registering the second consecutive monthly gain, and staying above the 50 threshold for the first time in three months. With regard to forward-looking demand indicators, new orders rose 1.1-pt to reach 50.8 in January, after briefly falling below the 50-threshold in December. Meanwhile, export orders fell moderately by 0.4-pt to reach 51.1 in January.

In addition, the stock of finished goods component stayed unchanged at 49.9 in January. With the rise in new orders and unchanged inventory reading, the new orders to inventory ratio recovered to 1.02 in January, compared to 1.00 in December. Besides, the employment component fell modestly by 0.2-pt to 49.1 in January.

On the inflation front, the input price index fell notably 3.2-pt to reach 39.9 in January, registering the lowest level since March 2009. Besides, the output price index fell 1.0-pt to 43.9 in January, the lowest reading since March 2014. The disinflationary forces in the manufacturing sector have intensified lately, with the further decline in global oil prices as a significant factor: the sequential trend in PPI fell at 3.3%oya in December (or down 5.6% 3m/3m saar in sequential terms), registering the most intense pace of decline (in both %oya and %3m/3m saar terms) since 3Q 2012.

New term growth concerns still focus on sluggish domestic demand

The 4Q GDP report released earlier this week suggested the economy moderated to 7.1% q/q saar pace of growth, moderating from 8.1% q/q saar in 3Q. Meanwhile, the December activity indicators, in particular December IP, came in better than expected. As such, the modest rise in flash January PMI reading seems interesting, especially considering that the major activity and demand indicators, including output, new orders and export orders, all came in above 50 as discussed above. Our baseline scenario looks for GDP growth to ease further to 6.3% q/q saar pace in 1Q15, considering lingering sluggish domestic demand conditions, especially the deceleration in the property sector and the over-capacity problems in a range of industrial sectors. Meanwhile, the early signs of some modest improvement in today’s flash January PMI report might potentially hint at some modest upside risk to our 1Q forecast.

On macro policy, the focus in 2015 will be prevention of downside risks, including macro risk and financial risk. We believe, from the policymakers’ perspective, the growth floor in 2015 is 7%. We expect the central government will raise the deficit target from 2.1% of GDP in 2014 to 2.9% of GDP in 2015 (though local government spending capability will likely be constrained under the reformed fiscal regime this year as well as slowing land sales revenue). On monetary policy, we expect one more rate cut (likely in 1Q) and two RRR cuts (with the first cut likely to be implemented before the Chinese New Year), in combination with other targeted policy instruments, including SLF, MLF, PSL, etc.

Given such macro policy outlook, we expect the impact of the easing in monetary policy, together with other growth-supportive measures, such as easing in property sector policies and the government’s further support for infrastructure investment, to begin to come through from 2Q15 onwards, leading to some moderate pickup in the economy's growth momentum. Overall, our 2015 GDP growth forecast stays at 7.2%oya.

声明:投资之家免费提供的研究报告及其他资料均来自互联网,仅作为用户获取信息之目的,并不构成投资建议,市场有风险,投资需谨慎。