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TVB:Taiwan divestment; special dividends likely

研究机构:瑞银证券 研究员:Varun Ahuja,Suresh A Mahadevan 发布时间:2015-02-02

TVB sells 53% stake in Liann Yee – its wholly-owned Taiwanese subsidiary。

TVB has announced the sale of 53% of its stake in Liann Yee Group (Taiwan) for aconsideration of NT$4,695m (equivalent to c.HK$1,149m) to three local investors – LiMao, De En and Lien Xin. This implies an FY13 P/E multiple of 12.4x for the Taiwanbusiness vs. TVB's current valuation of 13.2x (FY13) and 13.6 (FY14E) (at yesterday'sclosing price). Management believes that bringing in local partners will help accelerategrowth in the Taiwan business.

Deal increases probability of payment of special dividends。

We view the transaction as positive for TVB as the deal 1) Monetises investments inTaiwan; the Group is expected to record a gain equivalent to HK$1,328m (less taxes asapplicable) 2) Increases the likelihood of the payment of a special dividend, which maydemonstrate the company's focus on enhancing shareholder value 3) Retaining 47%stake implies that it will continue to participate in Taiwan's media story 4) Enhancesmanagement focus and resources towards the Hong Kong business (that is facingstructural headwinds in the medium term due to change in competitive landscape) andother markets.

We maintain estimates as we await more details。

Our back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that the disposal is likely to impact theGroup's FY14E net profitability by c.5% (on our estimates), with Taiwan operations tobe accounted for as an associate (vs. consolidation currently). However, we maintainour estimates as 1) the transaction is subject to regulatory approval and 2) we awaitmore details from the company.

Valuation: Re-iterate Buy and our DCF based PT of HK$55。

We believe that the current share price factors in concerns about the profitability of thecore HK broadcasting business. We view the risk-reward profile as favourable at currentvaluations (FY15E dividend yield 5.6%, EV/EBITDA 7.8x). We believe the stock price issupported by dividend yield, and any potential special dividend payment would providefurther upside to the shares. We re-iterate our Buy rating on the stock.

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