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EE/MI:Read Across from Recent Reports

研究机构:摩根大通(亚太) 研究员:C. Stephen Tusa,Rajat Gupta,Daniel J Innamorato,Pi 发布时间:2015-01-28

Following the first week of earnings, we maintain our view that fundamental direction is more important than positioning, and, on this front, we favor US non-res versus oil/gas, a theme reinforced early on.While the focus on oil/gas could be described as “hysteria” by now, the earnings discovery process is still ongoing with timing and magnitude of declines and related margin pressures still TBDs that we are gradually learning about. Early commentary seems to support a negative stance.HAL noted that it expects customer budgets to continue to be revised downward as rig count declines accelerate in 1Q. HAL also noted that customers have already approached the company to discuss pricing reductions, and HAL has similarly been reaching out to its suppliers to renegotiate pricing, creating margin pressure across the chain. BHI highlighted customer delays and deferrals and made similar comments to HAL on pricing negotiations already beginning to take place. PCP also preannounced negatively, partially due to a 10% decline in oil & gas distribution sales as its customers pulled back in anticipation of weakening demand—the run rate of declines in that business suggests a 50%+ drop, evidence of a de-stock in the channel. On the positive side, Delta reported strong results as the company benefited substantially from fuel savings and WWD results were also solid, with the company noting a continued robust commercial aerospace market. CSL preannounced negatively, citing the early onset of winter weather, but stressed that lower sales do not signal a slowdown in non-res, a market it expects to grow HSD in 2015. Elsewhere in non-res, JCI reported decent results and highlighted continued improvement in commercial HVAC demand and overall commercial activity.

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