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Orient Overseas (International) Limited:FY14 in-line, focus on FY15E margin expansion

研究机构:瑞银证券 研究员:Eric Lin,Tiffany Chen 发布时间:2015-02-03

FY14 revenue broadly in line with our forecasts.

Q414 revenue for liner business was US$1.4bn, flat YoY. Total lifting fell 2.6% YoY to1.36m TEUs but average revenue rose 2.5% YoY to US$1,029/TEU for the quarter. InFY14, liner revenue grew 3.5% YoY to US$5.8bn which was less than 1% below ourforecast. Total lifting increased 5.5% YoY to 5.59m TEUs offset by 1.9% YoY decline inaverage revenue to US$1,040/TEU.

Intra-Asia down, Asia-Europe and Trans-Pacific up.

Performance by trade was in line with our expectations. Intra-Asia was relatively weakin Q414 with revenue down 6.0% YoY as the volume drop was partly offset by slightlyhigher rates. In contrast, Asia-Europe had 8.7% YoY revenue growth as volume grew12.1% YoY partly offset by a 3.0% YoY fall in rate. Trans-Pacific had stable volume buthigher rate leading to a 2.7% YoY revenue growth.

Our FY15E net profit remains 22% above consensus.

Since we upgraded earnings on 22 January, consensus is gradually moving towards ourFY15 net profit forecast but we expect further upgrades based on lower bunker priceassumption. In 2015, we assume a 6% YoY increase volume offset by a 4% decline inaverage rate, leading to a 2% revenue growth. We assume average bunker price atUS$400/tonne driving a 3% reduction in operating cost. We forecast the EBIT marginwill expand from 5.0% in 2014 to 7.8% in 2015, and net profit to grow 46% YoY.

Valuation: Reiterate HK$65.00 price target and Buy rating.

We base our price target on a 1.0x target 2015E P/BV, assuming sustainable ROE of6.5% which is the same as its COE.

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