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Utilities Natural Gas: NDRC Lowers City Gate Prices & Sets the Stage for Market Pricing

研究机构:Jefferies 研究员:Joseph Fong,Laban Yu 发布时间:2015-03-02

Key Takeaway。

The NDRC announced that city gate gas price ceilings for incremental andlegacy volumes will be merged. More importantly, we believe the govt. mayhave set the stage for the market pricing of natural gas years ahead of schedule.With the city gate price of natural gas in Shanghai and other provinces setabove the price of fuel oil and LPG and the introduction of a market for directpurchasers, we wonder if the price ceiling is effectively meaningless.

NDRC merged prices of incremental and legacy gas volumes by lowering theprice ceiling of incremental volumes by Rmb0.44 per cm and raising the price ceiling forlegacy volumes by Rmb0.04 per cm effective April 1st. The price of natural gas consumedby residential users will remain unchanged. We've included the full translation of theannouncement and journalist interview with the NDRC representative in the report.

The prices set by the NDRC are ceilings. As seen in the chart below, the city-gate priceof natural gas in Shanghai is still 10% and 2% above the energy equivalent price of fueloil and LPG, and not a 15% discount to the current fuel oil and LPG prices. We believe thesituation for at the retail level in Shanghai is not all too different. However, the prices setby the NDRC are ceilings and PetroChina and upstream suppliers can and will have to sellbelow this price, at least in Shanghai and other coastal provinces.

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