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Natural Gas:Northeast Gas Price Pain Likely To Spread

研究机构:摩根士丹利亚洲 研究员:摩根士丹利亚洲研究所 发布时间:2015-07-24

expansions and reversals further pressure traditional natural gas flows and regional pricing. Midwest prices are likely to face downward pressure from cheap Northeast inflows while the Rockies and Western Canada markets are also negatively impacted as they are further displaced from premium winter markets in the Midwest/East. The introduction of Northeast gas into the Southeast also limits upside for longer-term USGC pricing.

Equity Implications:Power stocks already reflect bearish long-run gas prices, and trade at robust FCF/equity yields. Top OW picks: NRG and DYN; UW’s: PEG.

E&P exposure may be muted given liquids focus while oil sands producers benefit. Negatively exposed: ECA and to a smaller extent APC; Positively exposed: SU and MEG.

Structurally low natural gas prices should benefit NA based Petchem/Urea Producers. Likely beneficiaries: AGU, DOW and LYB (Overweight).

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